Lottery Experiment - An Itch to Scratch
Observation: Popularity of scratch-off lottery tickets remains high despite their low odds of winning. The attraction of exponentially increasing an "investment" of $1 with no skill involved draws people to these games.Hypotheses: If a $1 scratch-off lottery game is played 100 times, the player is likely to lose money in the end. Most people playing the game will eventually lose money, only a few will gain.
Variations: A player can potentially win a large sum of money on the first play with some "luck" on their side.
Experiment: 100 Texas Lottery scratch-off "Amazing 8's" games costing $1 each will be purchased. 20 games will be purchased from 5 seperate establishments. Amazing 8's have odds of 1 in 4.65 games at least break even.
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Step 1
I withdrew $100 in cash from an ATM and bought 20 Amazing 8's from each of these five establishments: Albertson's, Chevron, Diamond Shamrock and Exxon. The whole process took me an hour as some places I visited did not have Amazing 8's.
Step 2
Counted and verified that I had exactly 100 Amazing 8's scratch-off lottery tickets.
Step 3
Got my trusty tools ready: Two quarters. One is an American quarter and the other is a Canadian Quarter. I've found that Canadian quarters are much better for scratching mass amounts of lotto tickets!
Step 4
Start scratching! I would scratch and scratch until I found a winner, which would then be placed inside the "Winner$" basket.
Scratching 100 lottery tickets is NOT as exciting as I thought. It felt more like a boring job. Next time I do gambling experiments, I'm goin' ta Vagas.
Winner$ basket starting to fill up with $1 and $2 wins.
The real gem of the lot was this ticket which won $60! The chances of getting this are 1 in 1,500.
Step 5
Tabulate each amount won.
Losers were placed on the table, and the proud winners were put higher up on the stool (Just for a more dramatic metaphorical effect)
Step 6
Report the totals. I came out ahead with $102! A 2% return.
The proud winners in all their glory, especially our champion: Mr. $60!
After the experiment was completed, I went to the grocery store to cash in my $102. I then proceeded to the Bank of America ATM and deposited the cash directly back into my investment account. So I performed this experiment and MADE $2 and learned a little too!
Step 7Conclusion. This "investment" of $100 was more of an experiment and should not be used as investment advice. Anyone who invests their money in the lottery for purposes other than mild thrills and entertainment is (according to the odds) just dreaming. The odds prove that if you play long enough, you will lose 75% or more of your money. Of course you can also win a lot of money, but it's highly doubtful. I just happened to buy the right tickets at the right time for this particular experiment, but if I repeated the experiment again, I would most likely not make a profit or break even.
Hope you enjoyed the experiment, I sure did!
Labels: Money Experiments
posted by Neville @ 9:58 AM
65 comments
65 Comments:
sure beats GICs!
Cool blog, come visit mine fantonim.blogspot.com, just starting out though.
I've also got every major gas station and grocery store around me thinking I have a gambling problem!!
http://ourmoneyourfuture.blogspot.com/
The more money you spend doing this, the more of a chance your game will revert back to the mean. This means you will probably lose money and have 10 very mad people, that's why I did this with only my OWN money!
On the other hand, it would be exciting for 10 people in a room to scratch of 1,000 lottery tickets :)
I kept checking your blog through-out the day for it to be updated.
Any chance of doing a similar experiment?
If you have any wacky ideas for me to try out, let me know. I'm always looking to learn about new areas.
One surprising outcome of this experiment: It completely turned me off from scratch-off lotto's. Since I beat the average and broke even and then some, law of averages tells me not to touch them for a long time!
-Nev
Now you do realize that there is tax on gambling/lottery winnings. So your $2 x .75 [assuming 25% tax] = $1.50 after tax winnings
Factor in gas cost to go out and purchase the tickets...
But anyways, that was a fun experiment.
On a bright note, I saw you had GE long in your portfolio, they just raised Q1 profit forecasts... which is good for you. Better than $2 anyway... haha.
Jonathan@MyMoneyBlog
LONDON (AFP) - A global lottery syndicate based in the Philippines is the winner of a 16.6 million pound lotto jackpot, the Sunday Times newspaper reported.
Overseas Subscribers Agents (OAS), which plays European and US lotteries on behalf of members worldwide, had bought up to 14,000 tickets for the January 2 draw, the sixth biggest in British lotto history.
The tickets were purchased on behalf of OAS by a retired plastics technologist, Ken Jackson, to get around a rule that restricts the National Lottery to residents of Britain and visitors to the country.
www.aneshome.com/weblog/money/
I ran into a UK blog on this subject years ago, and now the site is in use by others. Alas, it too, was an informational/hobby site.
He proposed to examine the thesis that the innumarate cling to in forlorn hope, to whit, 'SOMEONE'S gotta win'. First he destroyed that propsition (which is a lie), and then he proposed a different examination of the lottery.
He proposed rightly, that the lottery exists in time and space, and yet if the results are not available, it does not cease to exist, yet the results are just as unpredictable. To whit; In the abscence of anyone reading this to correctly recite any of the numbers used in 2002, 2003, or 2004, then they are as genuine as next weeks as yet undrawn number. More precisely, if you choose a strategy for next week, you can apply it to the past and measure its results as a reliable predicotr of the future.
Here are the rules he used, and then documented.
He would buy 10,000 Pounds of tickets for each 6 number drawing, and apply the same numbers throughout the last 100 weekly drawings. Expenditures, then, will be 1,000,000 Pounds, and winnings will add up to whatever happens. He took the official numbers from a time starting 1 year earlier, and began tabulating his winning 3,4,5, and 6 number winners.
He won many 3s, several 4s, and a few 5s, and no 6 number jackpots, and I believe the total losses were about 650,000 Pounds.
In conclusion, the Lottery is a 'stupid tax', and 'a tax on hope, and innumeracy', and in truth, just a tax. I am always primed to respond if I am asked about the lottery, "I don't qualify." I am always challenged, and I gladly point out that I am not stupid, (just brash) and therefore do not qualify. Further, the failure needed to exploit people is innumeracy, and since Governemnt educates people on the one hand, and also profits by controlling the Lottery that exploits their lack of education and lack of integrity, and character, I find it reprehensible, and self serving to exploit the masses the government misleads into playing an immoral, unethical, and otherwise illegal fraud.
In view of your amazing 1500:1 hit, I suggest that in 15 experiments such as this, you will lose $700-800.
As a short aside I also comment to those who bring up the lottery, that the chances are in the millions. The chances, however, of being struck by lightning are lower than being struck with the winning numbers, although the disasterous effects are often closely parallel, and many good studies on that have been made. In short, I hope you never win, and never meet anyone who has. It's a disaster.
I realy like the site, and I chanced to find it. Now, I shall examine it at length, I believe.
www.bestscratchoff.com
I hope this isn't spam. I would love to talk about it more if there is any questions/interest.
http://oilstories.blogspot.com
-Greg
Federal $2,222.00
State $ 684.00
NYC 369.00
Total award after taxes $5,586.00 from a $50.00 investment
Federal $2,222.00
State $ 684.00
NYC 369.00
Total award after taxes $5,586.00 from a $50.00 investment
Federal $2,222.00
State $ 684.00
NYC 369.00
Total award after taxes $5,586.00 from a $50.00 investment
Keep up the interesting experiments.
here in ireland awhile back two teenagers had what they thought to be a great money making scheme,
they scratched a whole roll(s?) of lottery tickets in a shop they worked in, thinking they'll just pay for it with all the thousands they'd win, were they in for a surprise, there was MUCH MUCH less on them than the cost of the tickets, infact there was very little money on it at-all. but im glad it proved what a scam they are.
the lotto is a pure rip-off, supposed to help people in need, be a bit of fun & create millionaires overnight,
what a complete load of shite,
first of all for some magical reason 90% of the time theres a roll-over on bank hoildays etc, i know someone still wins but so what its still rigged.
before if you matched 3 numbers you win a grand total of 1 euro, but ohh no thats too much & then they add insult to injury, they give you a scabby 1 euro scratch card, so infact you win notting in most cases, that should be illegal, for four number you might get a tenner.
i got FIVE numbers before, (4 and the bonus) all i got was 70euro mudaf*^(!~s i thought i won thousands, the bookies are much better, for that match i'd of won 25,000 for a 1 euro stake & its tax free, which i cant belive it is'nt in the states. or for 3 numbers 250euro with bonus ball 450euro with it inclued. 50 for 2 numbers thats reasonible, cause even 3 numbers is hard to get.
they have since improved it, they've put up the price, added 3 extra numbers and very generiously upped the winnings to 3euro for a match 3 on the first and 2nd draw but not the 3rd???, i wish someone would set up a peoples lottey but theres no way they'd get a licence.
scratch cards are even worse here, the most ive heard anyone ever was 50euro, theres 1, 3 and 6 euro scratch cards and all you ever get on them is a free, 2, 4 or if your really lucky 8 euros.
its legal robbery is what it is.
glad to get that mad rant of my chest.
peace all & good luck
I always have beginners luck.
The cheapest ticket was a buck, two numbers. I picked my birthday. 10-28. Hit the 10, bulls-eye on the 28.
I flipped the ticket over and saw the odds of that are 1:166. I went to the bartender to claim my prize...
...Nineteen bucks.
In Vegas, a 1:166 bet would pay out somewhere in the neighborhood of $145 to $160. I got nineteen bucks.
The lotto is a rip-off.
-p
financialilliteracy.com
Free Online Lottery
Jerry
www.leads4insurance.com
it seems like here in Belgium we don't need to do all these experiments ... for all the official scratch lotteries that exist you can find the exact division of winning tickets on the official lottery site.
They say f.e. that 70% of the revenues will go back to the winners. And then they give an overview of all tickets, like this :
For each 1.000.000 tickets there are :
1 winners of 25.000 euro
10 winners of 5.000 euro
...
20.000 winners of 1 euro.
Total revenue : 1.000.000 euro
Total pay-out : 700.000 euro
This means that you are guaranteed to lose 30% if you could buy all the tickets.
But that's the game and you know it, the happy few win, the rest had a nice dream for a few moments.
The only way to win is if you could have your tickets for free ... and that's exactly how I play my lottery.
I started a blog so that other people can follow my story.
The Masked Millionaire
www.TheMaskedMillionaire.com
That's because the more expensive the tickets, the BETTER the odds of winning...
So if you spent $100 in more expensive tickets, you could have gotten a better return on investment.
But $102 is still pretty darn good! Good job!
You can find more tips on how to win in the scratchers game at my website.
BJ
http://www.HowToWinScratchers.com
Here in New York there's the "Take 5 scratch off game" which is congruous with the nightly drawing of the same name. The scratch off odds are better than any other game NY lottery has to offer. Or so it would seem.
The odds of winning the scratch off game are much higher than that of the nightly drawing, but the usual prize for the scratch off game is 3 matching "Take 5" symbols which earns you a free play in the nightly drawing. You cash in the card and receive a quick pick for the drawing.
Another common win is usually 1 or 2 dollars, meaning you'll win your dollar back and then the odds are against YOU. What would you do with those dollars? Buy another couple of tickets or take a shot at another game of chance of course!
If you match 2 numbers of the 5 picked in the nightly drawing, you win! What do you win? Another free play! Meaning you break even.
And the circle of you breaking even draws you into wasting your money on a game continues.
I have done similar experiments by recording many horse race bets and found that a high-priced winner, say 30/1, was the difference between a losing sequence and a winning one.
Interesting experiment that, I would love to do it myself, however I dont think I would have the same level of success as you.
well done though.
Winning consistently at random games like lotto is statistically improbable to the point of impossibility.
If we analyzed the problem from a business standpoint, we would never play the lotto as a business opportunity, but as sheer entertainment.
However, if you want a means to generate a consistent revenue, take a calculated risk and check out www.greencashleveragingsystem.com
I was thinking the long term results of this experimentt would be similar to if you did not get the $60 winner. If roughly 1 in 4 (or so) are winners, then you would be left with about $40.
Your Blog Nev, makes me smile!
Congratulations, on your mighty BIG Win! and what you say on Casino wins and LOTTERY TICKETS! The winning does happen, I know a few from Lottery Tickets - Megabucks/etc.
Stay Positive!
I want to write blogs like these, I shall try SOMEDAY lol
Blessings and (Spiritual) Hugs, Warrior Purple Lady SHEExooo
Pss...Scratch Tickets are addicting and sometimes, not life fulfilling! as we be a wishing, as we continue surviving...
Interesting experiment...
I'm an actual lottery retailer and have sold 1000's of scratcher tickets.
In my opinion, you got quite lucky because most people who buy a whole roll of scratchers end up losing MORE money than they purchased...
here's a cool experiment you should try next time...
try comparing a whole roll of $1, $2, $5 games...
find out which one wins more...
the answer is the $5...generally, the more expensive the scratcher game, the BETTER the odds of winning...
also...NEVER EVER buy a whole roll of scratchers...because you are bound to lose...
the lottery makes sure they make money off of this so they make sure there are MORE losers than winners...
obviously, some cases, there is that ONE really big winner here and there...but that doesn't come in every roll...
you can find more tips on my blog and website...
BJ Min
USA Lottery Retailer
http://www.HowToWinScratchers.com
http://www.financialaccuracy.com
Online Lottery Strategy.
Good luck!
1) the derelicts who say they only buy tickets when the jackpot is over $100 million dollars (99 mil wouldn't be worth messing with, I guess)
2) the same sort of scum who, when asked why they're buying ticket, say "I'm feeling lucky today."
Did you ever hear Warren Buffett explain a business deal with, "I'm feeling lucky today," or "I have a hunch."
Some people, Neville, are just wired up wrong.
3) When powerball gets huge in a nearby state, some idiots skip work to buy tickets there. Interviewed on TV, they express satisfaction with their chances of winning, yet they show they're oblivious to the high odds their boss will see them on TV and fire them!
4) Knew someone (dirt poor) who drove every week 20 miles across the state line to buy a few higher stakes tickets. Imagine the gas cost and risk of a car wreck. I asked her why she didn't make that trip once a month instead and buy four times more tickets. All I got was a blank look!
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-Neville
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